定价机制及债务变化决定改革的实质程度和成功程度的一个重要维度。东莞物流债务改革是一次性的,对后续的盈利能力提升没有明显的支持,但是提升了行业的再融资空间。而定价机制的变化则是为行业注入长期的盈利增长动力,因此作用更为重要。如果铁路改革仍然仅仅停留在管理体制的变革,而不能涉及到行政定价方式和债务融资模式的转变,那么我们认为,这样的改革所能产生的经济效益难以期待。如果改革能够涉及高额债务合理化,或触及定价权的灵活化,将从更加根本的角度改善铁道部目前盈利水平低下的困境,以及伴随而来的资金死结。从这个角度出发,我们推荐价格弹性敏感度更优的铁龙物流及大秦铁路。
Pricing mechanism and debt change is an important dimension of the decision to reform the real extent and degree of success. Debt reform is a one-time, enhance follow-up to profitability no apparent support, but enhance the industrys refinancing space. Changes in the pricing mechanism into the industry long-term earnings momentum, so the more important role. If the railway reform is still merely the change in management structure, but not related to changes in the administrative pricing and debt financing model, then we believe that such reforms can produce economic benefits is difficult to expect. If reform can involve the rationalization of the high levels of debt, or touched pricing flexibility from the more fundamental point of view to improve the Ministry of Railways, the current low level of profitability difficulties, and accompanied by funding deadlock. From this perspective, we recommend a better price elasticity sensitivity Tielong and Datong-Qinhuangdao railway.
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