By 2009, however, the positions will be reversed with China occupying the top position in global manufacturing for the first time for nearly 170 years, according to a new report.
When China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, its imports to the United States were approximately $130 billion. In five years, that number ballooned to $328 billion. (Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, via American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI)) Since then, China has continued to grow, and a revised forecast released this month by Global Insight predicts that China will secure the largest share in global manufacturing as early as 2009. Measured in real value-added terms, China is expected to surpass the U.S. as the leading global manufacturer by 2016.
Global Insight's initial projection in 2007 did not have China taking the top spot until 2021, according to conservative think-tank The Heritage Foundation.
"The basic reason is that growth in the U.S. economy has essentially been zero over the last year and will continue to struggle over the next year," says Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight.
U.S. manufacturing growth (measured in real, value-added terms) has remained above 3 percent, but it is expected to stabilize at approximately 2.2 percent by 2015. Measuring in real, value-added terms takes into account resource use, employment and productivity growth. It corresponds to the sector's contribution to overall gross domestic product (GDP) but does not account for inflation or exchange rates.
While the U.S. manufacturing growth has been relatively steady, China has been growing exponentially at a 10 percent to 15 percent compound annual growth rate over the last several years. However, Global Insight expects this growth to calm down to 8 percent by 2015.
More importantly, manufacturing makes up only 17 percent of worldwide GDP in nominal terms (again, not adjusted for inflation or exchange rates) compared to the service sector which makes up 65 percent. The U.S. share in global service-sector output is currently 32 percent while China's is 3.7 percent. This is expected to grow to only 8 percent by 2015.
China's rapid manufacturing growth will help raise its consumer income and infrastructural development needs, thus opening up vastly greater trade opportunities for the U.S. manufacturing and service industries where the United States enjoys a comparative advantage."

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